Just a 46-year-old mom of 2 in Northern California. My kids are Monkey Monkey(MM) and Drama Llama (DL). I am married to Monkey Hubby (MH). In 2006 the median monthly mortgage payment was $2291. (In Sacramento).
!!
Egads.
On one hand, I am not surprised. I remember marveling at the fliers when our neighbors sold their homes in 2004 - 2006.
"All this yours, for a mere $3k/month."
!!!
& I certainly know a lot of people in the area, with bigger mortgage payments.
But when I think to shortly before we moved here I think of house payments in the maybe $800 range. (I still can't get over how dh's cousin paid a mere $100k for his 4-bedroom home here, in 1999. If only we were 2 years older - our house would be paid off).
I saw some statistic somewhere, that I can't find now, that the median mortgage payment was about $1100 in 2000.
I am surprised it was that much. But the median can be hard to measure at face value. $1100 seems fair.
So that's 110% increase or so, in 6 years???
I will be curious to see where that median figure settles, once all the dust settles.
Maybe in the $1500 range.
The foreclosure rate is something like 100% for people who paid above a certain threshold for their home (over $475k in our neighborhood - every single last one fell. Though some had paid up to $650k).
I imagine all those foreclosures have got to bring down the median a lot!
Our mortgage was in line with the median when we bought, but since we have never increased our loan amount or interest rate, well, we can brag our payment is 50% of the median today.
Though it doesn't exactly mean much.
Then again, we could have maybe stomached a $300k mortgage or so - that was always rather our limit. If we had been looking at houses here in 2005 we just would have rolled our eyes. No thanks! Those were the kind of prices we were running from.
I was just thinking the other day that if we had a crystal ball we could have sold our house in 2005 for the realm of $650k (boy were we close to selling it anyway). & then if we got home sick or whatever we could have just moved back and scooped up the same house early this year for $350k again. Just waited for it to foreclose...
That would have been pretty sweet. Hell, we could have paid cash.
If only we knew.
I do know a lot of people who fled up north in 2004 - 2006. I haven't heard of them swooping in and buying back their houses at a fraction of the cost. Though I wouldn't be surprised if there is somewhat of a phenomenon of people moving back with prices settling so low again.
Then again, maybe they just move on. We have talked much about if we would move back home if it were suddenly more affordable. The decided decision is "hell no," but I must admit that comes with a fair amount of certainty that the area will never be near what we consider "affordable." I do admit closer proximity to family would give us second thoughts. But seems to nearly impossible, why even think about it.
But people who fled Sacramento at the peak clearly have that luxury to return. IF they wanted to.
It will be interesting to see how it unfolds.
Median Mortgage Payment
July 31st, 2008 at 08:28 pm
July 31st, 2008 at 08:45 pm 1217537112
July 31st, 2008 at 09:18 pm 1217539117
July 31st, 2008 at 09:40 pm 1217540437
July 31st, 2008 at 10:19 pm 1217542753
2006 median price was $400k (peak was higher in 2005):
http://www.housingtracker.net/old_housingtracker/location/Ca...
However, that's just a slice of it. Many of the larger mortgage payments are people who borrowed lots of equity. MANY. So though not so many people bought at the peak, a little too many borrowed at the peak.
July 31st, 2008 at 10:19 pm 1217542780
Sacramento is a cake walk compared to my original home. Egads...
http://www.housingtracker.net/askingprices/California/SanJos...
scroll down to 2006. !!!
July 31st, 2008 at 10:30 pm 1217543432
But then, Sacramento has had a rollercoaster-style run-up, yes?
:hustles to improvise crash savings plan to pay down mortgage.
July 31st, 2008 at 10:33 pm 1217543636
!!
That's what caught our eye in 2000. (We ended up buying mid-2001, for MUCH more).
As you can see it has been a CRAZY ride, since 1999.
There are locals who think we will see $100k homes again. (homes worth buying). I personally think they are dreaming. Too many Bay Area refugees who have found the dirty little secret that this is a pretty nice place to live.
My feelings anyway. Time will tell...
July 31st, 2008 at 10:52 pm 1217544752
July 31st, 2008 at 11:59 pm 1217548741
August 1st, 2008 at 12:56 am 1217552192
August 1st, 2008 at 01:37 am 1217554670
Some doomsayers here think 1991-era prices, but maybe they're thinking the outlying areas within commute distance of the city: the islands, and the McMansion ghettos. I'm thinking 2003-era prices for where I live (within the city, lots of mass transit options, walkable to major shopping), but that's a step up from the 28% decrease slide over five years I'd projected a year earlier, before I saw oodles of cranes and construction.
August 1st, 2008 at 01:47 am 1217555224
August 1st, 2008 at 02:10 am 1217556627
Sounds like a lot of equity borrowing in your neck of the woods too. (& $0 down and ARMs, etc.)
I do admit my "optimism" is because the Bay Area hasn't sunk yet. I haven't ruled it out. (I know a few too many 20-somethings with $500k+ mortgages there). I guess I wouldn't entirely rule out 1991 era prices, though I figure it seems unlikely at this point. Interest rates are another matter though. (Higher rates mean lower prices).
Too bad Gamecock! On the website. Give it some time. The way the markets are, it will come down more.